How Do Healthy Diets Impact the Feasibility of Achieving 1.5°C?

The findings from the study conducted by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) highlight the significant potential of adopting a healthier and more sustainable diet, particularly a flexitarian diet, in limiting global warming to 1.5°C as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Here's a breakdown of the key points from the research:

1. Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Shifting towards a more sustainable, flexitarian diet would lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane from ruminant animals raised for meat and milk. This reduction in emissions would contribute to extending the global CO2 budget compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

2. Increased Carbon Budget: Adopting a more sustainable diet could extend the current global CO2 budget by 125 gigatons, while still staying within the 1.5°C warming limit with a 50 percent chance.

3. Lower Emission Prices: Implementing dietary shifts towards a more sustainable diet would decrease economy-wide 1.5°C-compatible greenhouse gas prices by 43 percent by 2050.

4. Reduced Dependency on Carbon Dioxide Removal: Healthy diets would also reduce the dependency on carbon dioxide removal technologies by 39 percent by 2050.

5. Contribution to Feasibility of 1.5°C Target: The study demonstrates that dietary shifts play a significant role in achieving the 1.5°C target, contributing to the feasibility of transformation pathways outlined in the Paris Agreement.

6. Modeling Approach: The researchers utilized the REMIND-MAgPIE Integrated Assessment Modelling framework to simulate 1.5°C pathways, comparing scenarios with and without dietary shifts towards a more sustainable diet by 2050.

Overall, the study underscores the importance of considering dietary choices in climate mitigation strategies and suggests that promoting healthier and more sustainable diets, such as flexitarian diets, could serve as a critical lever in addressing climate change and achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

The statement from co-author Isabelle Weindl highlights the key features of the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet, emphasizing its focus on plant-based foods, reduction of livestock products, and limited intake of added sugars. However, despite the potential benefits of such a diet for mitigating climate change, several challenges remain:

1. Fragmented Food Policy Decision-Making: Food policy decision-making is often fragmented across different institutions and ministries, which can hinder the implementation of cohesive policies supporting healthy diets. Overcoming this fragmentation is essential for effective policy implementation.

2. Social Inclusion and Compensation: Ensuring social inclusion and implementing compensation schemes are crucial for achieving a just transition to healthy diets. Transitioning to sustainable diets may have social and economic implications, and addressing these concerns is vital to ensure equity and fairness throughout the process.

In conclusion, Johan Rockström, PIK director and co-author of the study, emphasizes the urgency of the situation. The findings suggest that shifting dietary patterns could significantly impact our ability to stay within the 1.5°C warming limit in the coming decade. This urgency calls for coordinated global efforts to support the transition towards sustainable and healthy diets. Such efforts should address the challenges outlined, including fragmented decision-making and the need for social inclusion and compensation schemes, to ensure an effective and just transition.